Current CO2 emissions could lead to ‘climate tipping point’ by 2200

LONDON - If carbon dioxide emissions continue on their present course, there will be a fundamental shift in the global climate system- a tipping point-by 2200, according to a survey of leading climate scientists.

Almost all of the leading researchers who took part in a detailed analysis of their expert opinion believe that high levels of greenhouse gases will lead to a tipping point with potentially far-reaching consequences, reports the Independent.he 14 scientists, all experts in their fields of climate research, were asked about the probability of a tipping point being reached some time before 2200 if global warming continued on the course of the worst-case scenarios predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

And nine of the fourteen scientists said that the chances of a tipping point for the high scenario were greater than 90 per cent, with only one saying that the chances were less than 50:50.

At current rates of CO2 emissions, the world is on course for following the higher trajectory on global warming suggested by the IPCC.

The survey was carried out by a team led by Granger Morgan of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh to try to assess the level of consensus among climate scientists over some of the uncertainties about future predictions.

They asked the 14 researchers, to complete an email survey, which was followed-up by face-to-face interviews.

One question focussed on the possibility of a “basic state change” to the climate system “with global consequences persisting over several decades”.

The scientists were asked whether they thought such a tipping point was likely within the next 200 years based on three different climate change scenarios - low, medium and high.

The authors of the report found that for the high trajectory, 13 of the 14 experts said that the probability of reaching a tipping point was greater than 50 per cent, and 10 said that the chances were 75 per cent or more.

Granger and his colleagues pointed out that the high temperature scenario was still within the range of plausible scenarios offered by the IPCC.

The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (ANI)