New model to predict accurate outcomes for IVF created
By ANIWednesday, January 5, 2011
WASHINGTON - UK researchers have suggested that couple-and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of the likelihood of having a successful outcome following in-vitro fertilisation (IVF).
Scott Nelson from the University of Glasgow, Scotland, and Debbie Lawlor from the University of Bristol, England have developed a new prediction model that provides a more accurate and contemporary assessment of likely outcomes after IVF than a previously established model - because the new model includes intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes.
The researchers used the data collected by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority on 144,018 of these cycles (the other cycles had missing data) to develop a detailed statistical model for the outcomes of IVF.
According to this model, several factors including increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, and the use of the woman’s own oocytes, were associated with a decreased chance of couples having at least one live birth.
By contrast, a previous IVF live birth and the use of intracytoplasmic sperm injection were associated with increased chances of success.
In addition, the researchers found that the chances of pre-term and low birth weight after IVF were increased if donor eggs were required and intracytoplasmic sperm injection was not used.
However, before this new prediction model could be used to guide clinical decisions globally and be used to counsel patients outside the UK, it needs to be validated using independent IVF data.
To facilitate the external validation of their model, the researchers are currently generating a free web-based prediction tool (www.ivfpredict.com) and iPhone application IVFpredict.
“Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF,” they concluded.
The model is published in this week’s PLoS Medicine. (ANI)
