New model could predict next political hotspots accurately

WASHINGTON - A new model developed by a team at Kansas State University professors and a colleague in New York could predict the next political hotspots accurately.

Called Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism Model of Domestic Political Violence Forecast, it is currently five for five in predicting which countries are likely to experience increases in domestic political violence against their governments within the next five years.

“So far it’s been pretty accurate,” said Sam Bell, assistant professor of political science at K-State.

“So far it’s been pretty accurate,” said Sam Bell, assistant professor of political science at K-State. Said Amanda Murdie.

“For example, our model predicted violence in Ireland. That happened recently due to the International Monetary Fund bailout.”

The database of 150 countries the researchers created contains the frequency and intensity of domestic political violence from 1990-2009.

It accounts for factors like repression, governmental aid to nongovernmental organizations, aid to countries to help build security, and Internet and mobile phone usage.

Additionally, three concepts are accounted for: coercion, coordination and capacity.

Coercion is defined by violations of physical rights. This heightens the motivation of protestors, according to Murdie.

The second concept, coordination, is how easily a domestic group can mobilize. Capacity, the third factor, is the ability of a country to project itself throughout its territory, thus limiting the intensity of domestic violence against government.

The researchers have also thought about using the database to create a risk assessment for civilian terrorism against other citizens. (ANI)